Will The Gray Man Beat Red Notice To Become The Biggest Netflix Movie?

The Gray Man Netflix probably won't beat Red Notice.  don't look up

The Gray Man – Image: Netflix

The gray man is one of Netflix’s biggest productions to date, and many had high hopes that it would make waves to become one of Netflix’s biggest hits of all time. Despite a good start, it doesn’t look like it will hold up for the highs of 2019 Red notice or Don’t look up.

Premiering July 22nd The gray man was Netflix’s big movie for summer 2022. It featured an all-star cast, starring Chris Evans and Ryan Gosling as the co-lead actors, and was directed by the Russo Brothers. Most people know the film because it carries the extraordinary price tag of over $200 million.

How well is The Gray Man doing on Netflix and pulling in the numbers to beat? Red notice or Don’t look up.

As a summary, the top 10 movies (in terms of hours watched in the first 28 days) as of August 5, 2022 are as follows:

  1. Red notice – 364,020,000
  2. Don’t look up – 359,790,000
  3. birdhouse – 282,020,000
  4. The Adam Project – 233.160.000
  5. extraction – 231,340,000
  6. The Unforgivable – 214,700,000
  7. The Irishman – 214,570,000
  8. The kissing booth 2 – 209,250,000
  9. 6 underground – 205,470,000
  10. donor confidential – 197,320,000

So far the answer is that The Gray Man isn’t bringing in the numbers to put it in first position.

Over a 2-week period from July 17th to July 31st, the film was viewed worldwide for 185.02 million hours on Netflix.

week period Viewed Hours (M) week rank weeks in the top 10
July 17, 2022 to July 24, 2022 88,550,000 1 1
July 24, 2022 to July 31, 2022 96,470,000 (+9%) 1 2

The opening weekend difference between Red notice is the best indicator that The Gray Man is unlikely to take first place. The film pulled in almost half of the 148.72 million hours Red notice reached.

It was also less than both The Adam Project and don’t look up Although The Adam Project was canceled in week 2, The gray man won.

netflix the gray man vs the adam project vs red notice vs dont look up

Hourly data chart for The Gray Man vs Red Notice vs Don’t Look Up vs The Adam Project

What’s on Netflix contributor Frederic, who also runs the Netflix tracking substack Netflix and Ciphers, expects a drop of about 60% for week 3 and a further 30% drop in week 4.

Using these numbers would mean approximately 38,588,000 hours for week 3 and 27,011,600 for week 4.

Given this development, we currently expect The Gray Man to become the third or fourth biggest Netflix film release based on Netflix’s own reported numbers. That would place the film slightly ahead or behind birdhouse.

Why didn’t Don Look Up and Red Notice do so well?

This question undoubtedly has a million different answers, mostly due to subjective opinions. You could argue Red notice ultimately had more star power.

One reason on the strategy side might be when these two movies were released, Don’t look up especially. This film turned in a huge profit in its second week, right around the holiday season when people would have been home.

as you may already know The gray man had a theatrical run a week before its Netflix debut. Did that affect viewership? The answer is we don’t know, but it seems unlikely. Netflix doesn’t release box office earnings, so it’s impossible to tell how many watched the film in theaters rather than on Netflix, but it’s worth noting.

Apparently, however, The Gray Man has done enough for Netflix to be considered successful, with a spin-off and sequel announced in the week after its launch.

What could be Netflix’s next big movie to beat? Red notice? That’s a tricky question, but our guess would be Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (aka knife out 2) has at least the greatest chance of releases in autumn 2022.

Did you watch The gray man on netflix? What did you think? Let us know in the comments.

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