Week 13 DraftKings Picks – Pickard’s “Pick-Six”

“You can’t just sit and wait for people to give you that golden dream. You have to get out there and make it happen for yourself.” – Diana Ross.

Each week I try to put out a little educational piece before going into the results of my previous week and this week’s selections. What I want to do for our weekly growth experiment is you predict the games over/under before looking at the answer. This is a great way to predict how many points teams are likely to score and how close your finger is to the pulse. You’ll be surprised how close you can get after just trying this a few times. Sometimes you bite off more than you can chew and you should have gone higher in other games. Nothing against a better bird’s eye view.

Week 12 recap:

1) Geno Smith QB, SEA $6,000 – Geno ended the day with a sweet tag of 328 yards and two touchdown passes, earning us 34.32 fantasy points.

2) Jeff Wilson RB, MIA $5,900 – Wilson had 39 yards and a touchdown before leaving the game. An injury took him out of the game and derailed what looked like it was going to be a big day.

3) Mike Evans WR, TB $6,700 – Having nine targets and only two catches is a little confusing for Evans. The chemistry was right as far as that goes well into the season. Evans scraped together a highly disappointing fantasy score of 5.1.

4) Mark Andrew TE, BAL $6,500 – Andrews had an average day. Although the return on investment wasn’t there, we hit safe ground of 11 fantasy points.

5) Mack Hollins WR, LV $4,400 – Hollins blew up with its bargain price of 16.3 fantasy points. This is the kind of flex game you’ll want to snag every week.

6) Chiefs DST, KC $2,800 – The Chiefs finished with an incredible fantasy total of 11 points. Under $3,000 and we’ve exceeded the starting Fantasy Points value of 10.

Week 13 Pick Six Pictures:

1) Joe Burrow QB, CIN $6,900 – There’s no better quarterback value play this week. Burrow’s salary and predicted fantasy points have him out of the box at 2.4x. Expect this to be like Bart Simpson with chalk with week. He’s an elite sub-$7k QB against a very exploitable Chiefs defense, and his favorite toy just returned from the IR. Mixon is out and I love RB Perine too; Considering he has $6,000 along with his goals, he’s an Austin Ekeler Lite.

2) Aaron Jones RB, GB $6,900 – QB AA-Ron is struggling with injuries and this game has 10th best OL vs worst DL in the league. The Bears are battered, and the Packers will look to run more to maintain ball control and limit Rodgers’ throws. Even if the packs fall behind, Jones has plenty of goals.

3) Amon-Ra St Brown WR, DET $7,100 – St. Brown has achieved a target share of 30% over the past three weeks. It could be his best game of the season. Two defenses that allowed big plays and two attacks that had big plays. When I select from this game, I see that the Egyptian god holds the most points at the end of the day.

4) Foster Moreau TE, LV $3,600 – This is a great value game. Averaging 4.6 goals per game, Moreau continues to be a safe shot for Carr. He is level on points with Adams in the red zone with two touchdowns, and Moreau has missed two games this season.

5) Nico Collins WR, $4,200 – Collins had 2.43% of the team’s target percentage over the past three weeks. This is a flexible game only, offering many goals in a game where they are always behind or just ahead. Perhaps the Texans will shock the world and roll back the Browns with Watson’s first game since his suspension against his old team. Either way, Collins will have a role as the team’s No. 1 WR.

6) Steelers DST, PIT $2,600 – Any form of pass attack is the Steelers’ Achilles’ heel. Luckily the hawks don’t have anything like that. You can finish the run game and I don’t see the Steelers offense flashing high enough for the Falcons to throw all day. Mariota isn’t a flawless QB and Black & Gold should be able to generate pressure, sacks and turnovers.

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