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Toledo vs Western Michigan odds, tips, predictions

Toledo vs Western Michigan Odds

Though Toledo has suspended the MAC West, Western Michigan won’t take it lightly at this point.

The Rockets are 7-4 in the season and 5-2 in conference play. That record is good enough to earn a bid for the MAC Championship game. Toledo has a one-game advantage over Eastern Michigan but also has the tiebreak thanks to a 27-24 win over the Eagles earlier in the year.

But Toledo suffered a heartbreaking 42-35 loss to Bowling Green in the closing seconds.

We’ll certainly see a strong effort from Toledo, who are looking to avoid entering the conference championship with a two-game slip.

Western Michigan goes into this matchup fresh from a snowy 12-10 win over Central Michigan. However, the Broncos have one of the worst offenses in college football.

Will Toledo drop another matchup due to lack of motivation?

Toledo were the clear favorites to win the MAC Championship ahead of the season. Heading into the final week, the Rockets lived up to those expectations and secured the MAC West Division title.

The offense was one of the top units in the conference behind quarterback Dequan Finn.

The sophomore has thrown 21 touchdowns on 10 interceptions while averaging 7.6 yards per pass. He ranks second on the list in rushing yards averaging 5.7 per carry while finding the end zone eight more times.

But he has been dealing with some injuries this season and was ruled out of contention against Bowling Green last week. True freshman Tucker Gleason has impressed in his two starts this season, notching three touchdowns in every matchup.

But the Rockets defense will lead this fight.

The front seven is one of the most dominant in the conference, allowing only 4.1 yards per carry. The secondary has held opponents for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 23rd in the country.

It was uncovered by Bowling Green quarterback Matt McDonald last week as it passed 395 yards. But Western Michigan is averaging 175 yards per game and has only thrown for 250 yards once this season, so it has a distinct advantage.

It’s been a tough season for Western Michigan, which hasn’t found a way to replace offensive production lost in the offseason.

The Broncos lost five of their top six pass catchers, highlighted by Skyy Moore, now with the Kansas City Chiefs. With a new quarterback in charge, the offense has taken a hit and is averaging just 16 points per game.

Western Michigan’s 4-7 record is a bit deceptive. One of those victories came over FCS New Hampshire, while the other three victories all came by less than seven points. The seven losses average 17 points per game, including five blowouts.

The main cause of the problems is the lack of an air strike. Quarterback Jack Salopek started the season under center, throwing seven touchdowns on 10 interceptions. He only completed 50% of his passes and was sent to the bench after throwing five interceptions against Ohio.

Newcomer Treyson Bourguet has since taken over, but the results have been similar. Bourguet has thrown two touchdowns and one interception on his 109 pass attempts. He also only completes 50% of his passes while averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.

That has led the Broncos to the 121st-best mark in yards per pass attempt this season.

Despite boasting a 55% rush rate, the group only averages 3.6 yards per carry against FBS enemies. Toledo’s defense was just exposed 395 yards through the air against Bowling Green, but Western Michigan doesn’t have the firepower to produce similar numbers.

Toledo vs Western Michigan Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdown menus below to hide or show how Toledo and western Michigan match statistically:

Toledo Offense vs Western Michigan Defense

Western Michigan Offense vs. Toledo Defense

Game pace / Miscellaneous
PFF tackle 17 45
PFF cover 12 75
SP+ special teams 127 121
seconds per game 24.1 (24) 27.3 (88)
rush rate 57.1% (38) 57.1% (37)
Data from CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Toledo vs Western Michigan Betting Tip

Finn’s status for this game is unknown, but the Rockets proved they have a strong second option in Gleason. Those under center should be able to thrive against a Western Michigan defense ranked 107th nationally by allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season.

Western Michigan’s offense was hard to watch at times. Both quarterbacks have shown little hope of launching an airstrike. All signs point to Treyson Bourguet getting his fifth straight start, but he hasn’t passed 200 yards to date and is only completing 50% of his passes.

Life will be difficult for the true novice who will have his toughest task yet against a strong Toledo defence.

I expect Toledo to come out inspired after their upset loss to Bowling Green last week. The Rockets will be fixing the ship and wanting to get into the MAC Championship on all cylinders.

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