Springfield avoided the worst-case scenario for winter weather Wednesday as the area received less snow cover than expected.
The winter weather guide for Sangamon County was canceled just after 1 p.m., with the National Weather Service lowering forecast snow amounts for Springfield and the surrounding area. Road conditions were also better than expected, with the Illinois Department of Transportation reporting that most roads across the state were clear.
As of Wednesday noon, 1.2 inches of snow had fallen at Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport, according to NWS. The initial expectation was 3-6 inches of snow in Springfield, with heavier amounts of snow in the south and east of the area.
The revised NWS forecast called for snow before 5 p.m., possibly mixed with rain, but most of the snow had melted by the afternoon.
The high could reach 36 degrees, with wind gusts up to 23 miles per hour. A previous forecast had predicted the possibility of up to six inches of snow.
A mix of rain and snow was forecast in areas southeast of Springfield through 4 p.m. before returning to snow later in the afternoon. NWS expected an accumulation of 1-2 inches in these areas by the end of the day.
The heaviest snow was expected east of Interstate 55; However, NWS snowfall reports indicate that the heaviest snowfalls occurred closer to the Missouri border in southern Illinois. For example, Fults, Illinois — just south of Metro East — reported six inches of snow around 9:30 a.m. Wednesday, as did Murphysboro.
Those pale in comparison to the snowfall in Modoc, Illinois, also in southern Illinois, which had reported 7.2 inches of snow as of 6 a.m. Wednesday.
More:Here’s what you need to know about the snow heading to Springfield and central Illinois
Why did we get less snow than expected
Barnes said temperatures in Springfield were quite warm when the rain started early Wednesday morning and began as rain before turning to snow sometime around 2am
“We were in the mid 30’s so it was just a little too warm,” Barnes said. “When it switched to snow, the snow that fell on the warm and wet ground kind of melted at first before eventually piling up.”
Had the temperatures been just a tad colder, like Bloomington-Normal, the snow might have stuck, with Barnes saying they got about three inches of snow due to the slightly colder temperatures.
“When the precipitation (there) started, it was just a few degrees colder,” Barnes said. “It started out as snow, so they could accumulate all of their precipitation as snow.”
The combination of warmer temperatures and wetter snow resulted in better road conditions than previously anticipated.
“(We) don’t really see too much of an impact on the streets,” Barnes said. “There might be some isolated slippery spots, particularly on bridges, overpasses and in rural areas, but overall most major roads will be quite wet in above freezing temperatures.”
Why was it relatively so warm this winter?
Barnes said a sustained high pressure ridge has resulted in warmer temperatures and very few days of extreme cold.
“All of the cold air has been trapped farther north and northwest of us,” Barnes said.
That will change over the next week as colder than normal temperatures hit the area, along with another chance of snow.
The future prognosis
NWS meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss said the possibility of snow could continue into Wednesday, with dust build-up possible in some areas.
“North of Springfield there is a better chance for accumulation,” Deubelbeiss said.
The next chance of precipitation will come on Saturday evening, with a different system bringing the possibility of rain and snow.
“We’ll have to keep an eye on that,” Barnes said.
