Adam Cochran believes that Srinivasan’s prediction is incorrect
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Prominent crypto analyst Adam Cochran recently expressed his disagreement with Balaji Srinivasan’s bold prediction that Bitcoin will hit a staggering $1 million mark within 90 days. Cochran’s skepticism is rooted in historical data and the behavior of alternative investments in times of crisis.
Cochran highlights that Bitcoin’s rally from 2020 to 2022 saw a 547% increase, while the 2017 rally, which took place at much lower prices, only resulted in a 1,105% gain. Given these numbers, Srinivasan’s prediction of a significant jump to $1 million in such a short timeframe seems far-fetched.
Cochran also points out that alternative investments like cryptocurrencies and precious metals tend to do better on economic risk than systemic risk. When the economy is struggling or cash flow is limited, alternative investments can be a viable option. However, when the whole system threatens to collapse, the value of these assets becomes irrelevant.
The analyst uses the February 20, 2020 stock market crash as an example as the world grappled with the onset of the pandemic. During that time, Bitcoin’s price plummeted more than 60% from its peak. While one would argue that bitcoin is now more widely accepted as an alternative to gold, Cochran shows that gold’s performance during the pandemic crash wasn’t particularly impressive either.
Gold, often seen as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty, has only appreciated 8.3% during the pandemic. Comparing Bitcoin’s downside volatility (-70%) to gold’s upside volatility (+8.3%) over the same period, Cochran suggests that expecting Bitcoin to hit $1 million in 90 days is unrealistic will, based on Srinivasan’s reasoning.
