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Notre Dame-NC State Prediction, Choosing How to Watch

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-11) visit the NC State Wolfpack (15-5) on Tuesday night. Promotion ends at 7pm ET. Below we continue our college basketball odds series with a Notre Dame NC State prediction, selection and guide.

Notre Dame has lost six of its last seven games and is 1-8 and ranked 13th in the ACC. The Fighting Irish covered 16% of their games while 60% exceeded the projected total score. NC State returns home after a loss to UNC but remains 5-4 and ranks eighth in the ACC. The Wolfpack covered 50% of its games while 50% were over. Notre Dame won both encounters between the two teams last season, but prior to that NC State had won four straight encounters dating back to 2018.

Here are Notre Dame-NC State College basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Basketball Odds: Notre Dame-NC State Odds

Notre Dame: +7.5 (-110)

NC Health: -7.5 (-110)

Above: 143.5 (-110)

Below: 143.5 (-110)

Here’s how to watch Notre Dame vs. NC State

TV: ACC network

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Notre Dame could cover the spread

Notre Dame’s season could not have started worse as the Irish have only won a single conference game and have yet to win a game outside of the Purcell Pavilion. With news that this will be longtime coach Mike Brey’s last season and their NCAA tournament hopes all but ended, the Irish play house money for the remainder of the year. The advanced metrics don’t seem to favor the Irish tonight as they rank 161 in KenPom and 192 in the NET. While her 1-4 record in quad 1 and 2 matchups doesn’t help her ranking, seven quad 3 and 4 losses are the nails in the coffin for Notre Dame’s resume.

Notre Dame has a mediocre offense, ranking only 188th (69.9 PPG), despite shooting a strong percentage from beyond the arc and tending the ball. The Irish are 22nd in threes made (9.3 3PM/game) and 33rd in three point percentage (37%). They also rarely turn the ball over and do so at the ninth lowest rate in the country (12.7%).

If the Irish are going to be street underdogs tonight, they have to shoot those three well first and foremost. All but one of Notre Dame’s seven rotation players are capable shooters, with senior guard Cormac Ryan leading the way with 1.9 threes per game. While his 36% percentage from deep is solid enough, it’s actually one of the lowest numbers on the team. Senior forward Nate Laszewski averages 1.8 threes per game and shoots them with a stellar clip of 42%.

ND need to recover as a team if they are to cover. The Irish are one of the worst rebound teams in the country as they rank 313th in rebound rate. Laszweski leads the team at 7.5 RPG, but he’s their only player taller than 6’9″. As a result, ND has not won the rebound fight since December 3, and has only done so four times all season.

Why the NC state could cover the spread

NC State stormed through its non-conference list but has been up and down since the ACC game began. While they started the conference 2-0, they have since won five out of seven. The wolf pack is particularly strong at home, where it has gone 10-1 so far. The advanced metrics favor NC State tonight as they rank 42nd in KenPom and 36th in NET. While they’ve only gone 1-4 in Quad 1 games, their five Quad 2 wins and lack of Quad 3 or 4 losses give them a strong hold on the tournament. As a result, NC State currently projects as the No. 7 in the NCAA tournament.

NC State’s greatest strength is in the offensive end of the floor as they rank 27th in the standings (79 PPG). Perhaps NC State’s biggest advantage over Notre Dame is on the glass, as the Wolfpack ranks 56th in rebounding (37.4 RPG) compared to the Irish’s 340th (30.5 RPG). NC State does a good job protecting the rim – ranked 42 in blocks (4.6 BPG). They excel at taking away the outside shot as they rank 25th in legal threes (5.7 opp 3pm/game) while keeping opponents at the 33rd lowest three point percentage (30%).

Offensively, NC State relies on a trio of talented guards to lead the way. Sophomore Terquvion Smith leads the ACC in scoring (18.7 PPG) while ranking fifth in assists (4.5 APG). Senior Jarkel Joiner is right behind him with 16.3 PPG and 3.5 APG. Senior Casey Morwell supplies the majority of her outside shooting as he averages 2.5 threes per game while shooting them at a 45% clip.

Final Notre Dame-NC State Prediction & Pick

Notre Dame has been one of the worst teams against the spread this season. Defeat the home favorites in a game that should be decided by double digits.

Final Notre Dame-NC State Prediction & Pick: NC State -7.5 (-110)


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