Wake up to VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15 minute podcast that airs at 6:30am ET highlighting the top plays and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Friday’s betting action, be sure to check out the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be released by 3pm ET.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is headed for Friday’s stacked college football board…
12 p.m. ET: Tulane in Cincinnati (-1, 44.5)
Tulane (9-2, ranked 19) just defeated SMU 59-24 and is a home favorite by 3.5 points. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (9-2, ranked 24th) only brushed aside Temple’s 23-3 and covered on the road as a 17-point favorite. That line was opened when Cincinnati was listed as a 3-point home favorite. The crowd sets the short spread with the Bearcats. Despite receiving 60% of the bets, Cincinnati has fallen from -3 to -1. This signals a sharp reverse move on Tulane, with the pros grabbing points with the street dog. Tulane gets 40% of the bets but 57% of the money, a sharp “lower bets, higher bucks” betting discrepancy. Both teams give up about 20 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Tulane has 35 PPG compared to 32 PPG for Cincinnati. Tulane also has a two-day rest advantage, having last played for Cincinnati on Nov. 17 compared to the 19th. Sharps have also hit the floor, bringing the total down from 47 to 44.5. The bottom only gets 18% of the bets but 57% of the money. Both teams are 6-5 under.
12 p.m. ET: Baylor in Texas (-8.5, 55)
Baylor (6-5) rides a two-game sled and fell straight to TCU 29-28 but was mated as 2.5-point homedogs. On the other hand, Texas (7-4, ranked 23) just beat Kansas 55-14 and is the 9-point favorite on the road. That line opened when Texas was listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is too high and 64% of the bets snag the points with the street dog. However, this line has actually shifted further to Texas -7.5 to -8.5. This suggests making points with the longhorns and fading out the trendy dog bears. Both teams average about 35 PPG on offense. Texas has the better defense, allowing 21 PPG compared to 26 PPG for Baylor. Pros drew on the underweight, bringing the total down from 56 to 55. Weather could play a role as the forecast calls for winds of 15 to 20 MPH in the mid 50’s. This would qualify as a “windy under” system match. The bottom gets 31% of the bets but 62% of the money, a remarkably sharp split of the bottom bets.
3:30 p.m. ET: Arkansas (-4, 55.5) in Missouri
Arkansas (6-5) just upset then-Ole Miss at 42-27 cruising as a home pick ’em game. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-6) defeated New Mexico State 45-14 to tie as a 29-point home favorite. This line opened when Arkansas was listed as a 4-point street favorite. The public places the points with Arkansas. However, despite 61% of the bets in their favor, Arkansas hasn’t moved away from -4. In fact, some trades even dropped to -3.5 during the week and briefly touched -3. Reading between the lines, it seems that the entire responsibility falls on the Missouri house dog and the dots. Missouri gets 39% of the bets but 77% of the money, a massive sharp betting discrepancy in their favor. Arkansas has the edge on offense, averaging 31 PPG compared to 25 for Missouri. But Missouri has the better defense, allowing 25 PPG compared to 29 for Arkansas. The under fell from 56.5 to 55.5. The bottom gets 58% of the bets and 78% of the money. Arkansas is 8-3 under and Missouri is 8-3 under.