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Florida vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds

The Florida Gators take on the Florida State Seminoles. Check out our college football odds series for our Florida State prediction and picks.

The Florida State Seminoles were hit hard in the middle third of their season by a three-game losing streak. They lost to Wake Forest, North Carolina State, and Clemson to be eliminated in the ACC Atlantic Division race. They could have allowed this rough patch to encroach on the rest of their season, but to their credit, they’ve bounced back. Florida State won its first four games of the season before losing three games. The Seminoles pulled off another four-game winning streak on the other side of their losing streak. They wiped out Miami and then won in Syracuse to halt their relegation and give themselves a shot at a nine-win season, which is a clear step up from the last five seasons.

Florida State isn’t just winning either; the Seminoles play aggressive, physical football. They win decisively and convincingly, rather than just winning games because the losing team gives away the ball in the dying minutes. FSU doesn’t win games cheaply. This team is taking matters into their own hands and showing that progress can be expected next season.

Florida, unlike the state of Florida, is in real trouble. The Gators have gotten worse over the season. They beat Utah in Week 1 and looked like a team that had a chance to do something good this year, but they broke up on both sides of the ball, a reality reflected in a crucial loss to Vanderbilt last week manifested. The Gators were 16 points behind before eventually losing by seven points. They had no answers as to what Vanderbilt was trying to do. When a team with Florida’s national brand name and reputation loses to Vanderbilt, something goes very wrong. This team will try to regroup and rally for the flag in this rivalry game against Florida State, but it’s awfully hard to just flip the switch and hope a mediocre team can suddenly play winning football. It doesn’t usually work that way.

Here are the Florida-Florida State NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: Florida-State of Florida Odds

Florida Alligators: +10 (-110)

Florida State Seminoles: -10 (-110)

Over: 57.5 (-110)

Under: 57.5 (-110)

Why Florida could cover the spread

The Gators are inconsistent and unreliable, but anything is possible in a varsity football rivalry game. Wild things can and will happen. We saw that on Thursday night when underdog Mississippi State beat favorite Ole Miss on the road, and did so from a nine-point deficit in the second quarter. This was not an expected turn of events. It can be similar here. Florida, when they get a big game from quarterback Anthony Richardson, is an extremely dangerous team. Don’t bet against the Gators when Richardson is in top form and has decent protection off his offensive line.

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Why the state of Florida could cover the spread

This is a mismatch. Florida State rumbles past inferior opponents towards the end of the 2022 season while Florida is thoroughly overhauled and outmaneuvered by Vanderbilt. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and FSU has a home game this game. Of course, Florida State will cover.

Florida state final prediction and selection

It’s simple: Florida State looks like a good team and Florida doesn’t. The state of Florida is at home. Don’t make it too complicated.

Florida State final prediction and picks: Florida State -10

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